As war winds down, will Iraq's progress hold steady?

Last year saw vast improvements in Iraq. Violence dropped dramatically and Iraqis took greater political and military control. But war is still being fought, suicide bombings remain a near daily menace, and the gains are fragile. The year ahead will test the staying power of progress as US military forces begin to withdraw, Iraqi politicians jostle for power in Baghdad and beyond, and a new administration in Washington assumes responsibility for the war as it enters its seventh year.

How safe is Iraq?

The mix of the US and Iraqi military troop surge, many Sunnis turning against Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) to work with American forces, and a cease-fire among the Shiite militia known as the Mahdi Army ended much of the sectarian fighting that racked the country in 2007.

The increase in security has been striking in Baghdad, where shops are reopening and concrete barriers are being removed. But the surge did push insurgents north to cities like Mosul and Baquba, where attacks are still common but increasingly focused on Iraqi security forces rather than civilians. To be sure, insurgents are still able to carry out high-profile suicide bombings.

According to estimates from independent organizations, between 6,700 and 8,000 Iraqis were killed in attacks in 2008, more than a 50 percent drop compared with 2007. According to the Associated Press, 314 US troops are believed to have died in Iraq in 2008 compared with 904 servicemen and women killed in 2007.

Will President-elect Barack Obama accelerate the US withdrawal?

Under the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between Iraq and the US, some American troops have already started pulling back to major bases that will become regional military hubs. US forces are set to leave most cities by July and are scheduled to be completely out of Iraq by the end of 2011.

Even though Mr. Obama said during his campaign that he would withdraw forces within 16 months of taking office, military commanders, senior Iraqi officials, and Middle East experts have stressed that a rush to leave could be disastrous.


The rest of the report can be read at this link: Iraq